CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2016-02-11T21:28ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10195/-1
CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2016 Feb 11 2350 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The C8.9 flare peaking at 21:03 UT on February 11 in the region between the NOAA ARs 2496 and 2497 was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. The associated halo CME (angular width at least 270 degrees) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 21:28 UT. Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar disk center, the CME will most probably arrive at the Earth. The arrival may be expected late on February 14 - early on February 15, although this estimate may be refined as more coronagraph data becomes available. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 77.37 hour(s)
Difference: 2.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-02-11T23:53Z
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